GENEVA: Italy and France could fail to reach the last eight at Euro 2008 tomorrow, less than two years after competing in the World Cup final in Berlin, having been exposed by repeated defensive lapses.
They meet in a decisive Group C match at the Letzigrund Stadium in Zurich without the ability to control their own destinies. One of them is likely to finish bottom.
Holland have already taken first place after a 3-0 win over world champions Italy followed by their 4-1 demolition of France, while Romania will finish second if they beat the Dutch in Berne tomorrow no matter what happens in Zurich.
If Romania lose, though, Italy and France have a chance of sneaking through to a quarter-final with Spain in Vienna.
Although the Italians and French have had mixed fortunes in the last two years, they have retained faith with many of the players that led them to the World Cup final.
Eleven of the 14 Italians who played in Berlin have appeared here – it would have been 12 if Fabio Cannavaro was fit – while eight of the 14 Frenchmen in the final have played in the opening two matches. Thirteen of Italy's 23-man squad were also on the list in 2006, compared to 12 for France.
They reached the World Cup final, which Italy won in a penalty shoot-out after a 1-1 draw, because their defences were outstanding. France conceded three goals in seven matches in Germany while Italy conceded just two.
Both teams each let in more goals in their defeats by the Dutch last week than they did throughout the entire World Cup.
Two years on, defensive failings have been the root cause of their troubles. Italy, traditionally strong at the back, have failed to cope without captain and inspirational defender Cannavaro in the loss to the Dutch and 1-1 draw with Romania.
Cannavaro was ruled out of the tournament before it began with ankle ligament damage and his leadership of the back line and ability to make late tackles have been missed.
They lacked creativity in the Dutch game with midfielders Andrea Pirlo, Gennaro Gattuso and Massimo Ambrosini again playing too deep, while striker Luca Toni was isolated from wingers Antonio Di Natale and Mauro Camoranesi.
They made five changes for the Romania game and the formation was less regimented but they still needed a late penalty save from Gianluigi Buffon to avoid another loss.
France, playing their first major tournament in over a decade without Zinedine Zidane orchestrating play and Fabien Barthez in goal, were hoping to find the right mix between aging stalwarts and exciting newcomers.
It has not worked out, partly because several of their most seasoned players are injured or below par.
Captain Patrick Vieira, struggling with a thigh injury, has been kept in the squad but missed the first two matches.
Centreback Lilian Thuram and fullback Willy Sagnol looked their age against a Holland side that had too much pace.
France's two major problems have been that they were let down by their defence, which they believed was their strongest point, and looked clumsy in front of goal. They created many chances against the Dutch but managed to convert just one.
Midfield inspiration was also missing, with Vieira sidelined and Zidane retired, while young playmaker Samir Nasri has not been given a chance to prove his worth having been limited to a late substitute appearance against Romania.
Italy coach Roberto Donadoni and France boss Raymond Domenech now have one match to get it right. The irony is that, even if they do, they could still be on an early flight home.
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